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Japanese Yen Declines After Trade Figures Miss Expectations

This is an automatic summary, original reduced by 11%.
The Yen declined against the US Dollar following poor Japanese trade balance figures January's trade balance was - ¥1086.9b vs -¥625.9b expected and ¥640.4b previously February's FOMC minutes serve as top event risk for USD/JPY in the week ahead. See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the DailyFX SSI readings on the sentiment page.
The Japanese Yen fell against the US Dollar as trade balance figures missed expectations.
The data showed the nation's trade balance for January was - ¥1086.9b versus -¥625.9b expected and ¥640.4b recorded in December.
While there was an initial USD/JPY climb, the excitement seemed to dwindle rather swiftly as these figures have limited implications for BOJ monetary policy.
With a rather quiet week ahead, the release of February's FOMC meeting minutes will serve as top event risk for the USD/JPY pair.
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Summary Source | FAQ | Theory | Feedback | Top five keywords: trade#1 balance#2 USD/JPY#3 figures#4 February's#5
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Getting Started

Hey guys! I found a super cool list of everything a new forex trader would need to get started! Originally made by to nate1357. Link to original thread http://redd.it/328cjr
Free Resources
Education:
www.babypips.com/school
www.informedtrades.com/f7
www.forex4noobs.com/forex-education
www.en.tradimo.com/learn/forex-trading
www.youtube.com/useTheTradeitsimple
www.traderscalm.com
www.orderflowtrading.com/LearnOrderFlow.aspx
www.profitube.com
Calendars:
www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
www.dailyfx.com/calendar
www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar
www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar
www.myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
www.investing.com/economic-calendar
Free News Websites:
www.forexlive.com - Daily live news, analysis and resources
www.financemagnates.com - FX industry news and updates
www.fxstreet.com - Daily news, analysis and resources
www.forextell.com
www.forexcup.com/news
www.bloomberg.com/markets
Forums:
www.reddit.com/forex
www.forums.babypips.com/
www.forexfactory.com/forum.php
www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php
www.forex-tsd.com/
www.fxgears.com/forum/index.php
www.trade2win.com/boards
Margin / pip / position size calculators
www.myfxbook.com/forex-calculators
Brokerages:
There are many factors to consider when choosing a brokerage. Regulations typically force US traders to only trade at US brokerages, while international traders have more choice. After considering location you need to consider how much capital you will start trading with as many have minimum deposit levels. Once you’ve narrowed that down you can compared spreads and execution. ECN brokers execute your orders straight through to their liquidity providers, while market maker brokers may pair up your trades with other clients. Market maker brokers typically will partially hedge your positions on the interbank market. Many consider this to be a conflict of interest and prefer to trade at an ECN broker who would have an active motive to see you succeed. Lastly, brokers run inherently risky business models so it is important to consider the risk of bankruptcy.
www.forexpeacearmy.com - Aggregates broker reviews. Be warned though that people only seem to make bad reviews.
www.myfxbook.com/forex-broker-spreads - Live comparison of executable spreads
United States & International-
-Interactive Brokers
International Only-
-LMAX (whitelabel DarwinEx)
*DMA broker based in the UK. Note that as a DMA broker LMAX eliminates the ability for LPs to last-look transactions. This may result in reduced liquidity during volatile times as liquidity providers would be likely not to risk posting liquidity to LMAX's pool. *Tight spreads *Minimum deposit $10,000 *Fairly well diversified
-Dukascopy
*ECN based in Switzerland, but available elsewhere depending on local regulations.
*Tight spreads *Minimum deposit $100 *Fairly well diversified
-IC Markets *ECN based in Australia *Fair spreads on standard account, tight spreads on professional accounts. *Minimum deposit $200 *Fairly well diversified
-Pepperstone
*ECN broker based in Australia. *Fair spreads on standard account, tight spreads on professional accounts. *Minimum deposit $200 *Not well diversified
Software / Apps:
Desktop/mobile
Terminology/Acronyms:
www.forexlive.com/ForexJargon - Common terms and acronyms
FAQ:
I need to exchange money, how do I do it?
This isn’t what this sub is for. Your best bet is using your bank or an online exchange service. Be prepared to pay a hefty fee.
I have money in one currency and need to exchange it into another sometime in the future, should I wait?
Don’t ask us this. We speculate intraday in FX and shouldn’t be relied on to tell you what’s best for you. Exchange the money when you need it.
I have an FX account, should I start trading demo or live?
This is highly debatable. You should definitely demo trade until you have mastered how to use the trading platform on desktop and mobile. After that it’s up to you. Many think that the psychology of trading live vs demo trading is massively different. So it may pay to learn to trade live. Just be warned that most FX traders lose almost their entire first account so start with a low affordable balance.
What’s money management?
Money management is a form of risk management and is arguably the most important aspect of your trading when it comes to long term survival. You should always enter trades with a stop loss - the distance of the stop allows you to calculate how large of a percent of your account balance will be lost if your trade stops out. You can run a monte carlo simulation to figure out the risk of having a number of trades go against you in a row to drain your account. The general rule is that you should only risk losing 1-4% of your account per trade entered.
More on this here: www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/fxmoneymgmt.asp[35]
www.swing-trade-stocks.com/money-management.html[36]
What about automated trading?
Retail FX traders have been known to program “Expert Advisors” (EAs) to automate trading. It’s generally advisable to stay away from that until you’re very experienced. Never buy an EA from a developer because the vast majority of them are scams.
What indicators are best?
That’s up to you to test and find out. Many in this forum dislike oscillating indicators since they fail to capture the essence of what moves price. With experience you will discover what works best for you. In my experience indicators that are most popular with professional traders are those that provide trading “levels” such as pivot points, fibonacci, moving averages, trendlines, etc.
What timeframe should I trade?
Price action can vary in different timeframes. In longer term timeframes the price action and fundamentals are much more clear. Unfortunately it would take a very long time to figure out whether or not what you’re doing is successful on longer timeframes. In shorter timeframes you can often tell very quickly if what you’re doing is profitable. Unfortunately there’s a lot more “noise” on these levels which can prove deceptive for those trying to learn. Therefore the best bet is to use a multi-timeframe analysis, working from top-down to come up with trades.
Should I trade using fundamental analysis (FA) of technical analysis (TA)?
This is a long standing argument in these forums and elsewhere. I’ll settle it here - you should have an understanding of both. Yes there are traders who blindly ignore one of the other but a truly well rounded trader should understand and implement both into the analysis. The market is driven in the longer term through FA. But TA is necessary to give traders a place to enter and exit trades from a psychological risk/reward standpoint.
I’ve heard trading Binary Options is an easy way to make money?
The general advice is to stay away from binaries. The structure of binary options is so that when you lose the broker wins. This incentive has created a very scammy industry where there are few legitimate binary options brokers. In addition in order to be profitable in binaries you have to win 55-65% of the time. That’s a much higher premium over spot FX.
Am I actually exchanging currencies?
Yes and no. Your broker handles spot FX is currency pairs. Although they make an exchange at the settlement date they treat your position in your account as a virtual currency pair. Think of it like a contract where you can only buy or sell it as a pair. In this sense you are always long one currency while short another. You are merely speculating that one currency will appreciate or depreciate vs another.
Why didn't my order fill?
Even if price appears to cross over a line on your chart it does not guarantee a fill. Different charting platforms chart different prices - some chart the bid price, some the ask price and some the midpoint price. To fill a limit order price needs to cross your limit's price plus the spread at the time that it is crossing. If it does not equal or exceed the spread then it will not fill. Be wary that in general spreads are not fixed. So what may fill at one time may not at another.
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USD/CHF Weekly Outlook, (after a massively successful trendline bounce)

Last week I posted a potential trendline bounce setup on USD/CHF. You could say it worked out rather well.
It took a couple of days to hit my target of 0.94, but I'm actually still in this trade, sort of. I've taken most off my position, and then added again when we returned to 0.952 briefly. Having said that, I was probably caught up in the heat of the moment, and 0.95 would have been a better re-entry point.
There's also a case for the bears here, so let's look at the set ups for USD/CHF.
8Hr Chart:
http://i.imgur.com/bZCNoTM.png
That last 8Hr candle is a bull's worst nightmare, so why am I still in this trade? The break of the wedge is encouraging, sure, but the larger wedge top has halted advances for now. We could easily see 0.9500 or even 0.9420/00 early in the week if the dollar rally loses steam. But here's why it might not. That means it's time to...
Talk About Fundamentals!
Why did the US Dollar rally so much? There are a lot of ideas floating around. It wasn't broad-based risk aversion, although it looked like it if you were watching the Aussie and the Pound. What most likely caused it was the search for yield, as investors lost confidence in Japanese government bonds, and the US economy started to look even healthier. Good jobs numbers mean a chance of tapering QE sooner than expected, which is one of the only things propping up the riskier assets.
Stocks didn't follow through, which leaves me suspicious. The Yen crosses were actually up (although in a much more muted fashion than USD/JPY). But the most telling sign comes from EUUSD.
I'm gonna get a little ahead of myself here and take a page from Jamie Saettele's book (DailyFX). EUUSD and USD/CHF have always been highly negatively correlated. That correlation breaks down sometimes, but it's usually there. When we have highly correlated assets, we can look to the correlated asset for confirmation of a big move in the first asset. A good example is gold and silver. If gold makes a new high but silver does not confirm that new high with its own, then chances are the next move in gold is down.
So if we get a night high in USD/CHF, we're looking for a new low in EUUSD. And we got it.
Price went briefly down to 1.2950. Here's the 8hr chart of EUUSD showing USD/CHF in white:
http://i.imgur.com/Xmcn3Bq.png
So the next move for both of these, in the medium term, is probably a continuation of Friday's moves. However, as you can see EUUSD looks to be bouncing off its trendline, and USD/CHF failed to break close above the larger wedge top. This leaves some doubt as to this week's likely moves.
USD/CHF Trade Set Ups
There's a case for both bulls and bears. If you believe that this dollar move was impulsive and likely to retrace, there are sell signals aplenty. Trade would be simple:
Sell at market, with a stop above 0.963, targeting 0.945 initially (former wedge top which could act as interim support) and then 0.9300 (ascending wedge bottom).
However, I believe that what is happening is something of a paradigm shift, as investors finally start to click that their best chance of reliable yield is in US Treasuries. I would like to see the move confirmed by a EUUSD trendline break, and a similar move from the S&P500. If we do get that, expect the larger wedge to break, and for this pair to enjoy a lot more upside.
I am currently long from 0.9271. I took a third off at 0.94, another third off at 0.9550, my final target is open, and I am so fucking smug right now. I added at 0.9520, and will add a final third (bringing me back to the original position size) if we see the 0.9500/0.9460 area again. I intend to hold this trade until I am stopped out, either by a full retracement, or because my trailing stop was hit. I will trail the stop manually whenever new lows are formed.
This means I will be trailed out by the creation of a lower low - an indication that party time is over.
Happy trading!
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Becoming a Better FX Trader: Classic Chart Patterns, Part I

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